A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
